@guip1408: Why don't you think so?
For me, some of the reasoning that makes me choose Spider Man at 1, Monster Hunter at 3, and GOW somewhere in the top-5 comes down to listening to the podcast and knowing how GOTY has worked in the past (I have been following the site the the Arrow Pointing Down blog). Take MHW as an example, going off of the podcast and info from the site, name one other game that has been as universally loved by the crew as this one? Hell, it is even loved by Jeff and that guy has gone on rants as to how much he dislikes the previous entries in the series and how MHW is amazing because they finally made a game that allows him to see the appeal of the series. Now there are serious arguments for the problems with the game, but again, it grabbed the attention of almost everyone on staff and historically those are the games that tend to win GOTY on this site. There are arguably better games, like Red Dead 2, but that game has a major division in popularity between the staff. Jeff hates it and lots of the staff that did enjoy it have given up on the game with people like Dan saying that this is one of the most disappointing games of the year for him. The exact same thing can be said for God of War, half the staff didn't like that game enough to actually make it past the half-way point, they just quit because the game play was tedious and the story wasn't enough to pull them along. So whats left? Return of the Obra Dinn, Tetris Effect, Dead Cells, Celeste? Those are all games that the staff has dismissed for one reason or another. Celeste is too boring and generic with its only real appeal being nostalgia and the story twist and a good chunk of the staff think that tight game play is more important than story. A good chunk of the staff agree that Dead Cells is a great game, but the length of runs has repeatedly been mentioned as a major turn off for several members. Tetris Effect might be a sleeper, and everyone seems to love it... but it's just Tetris with a Lumines skin and VR support that the staff agrees is fun for a moment but is better on a regular TV. Obra DInn is a good game, but we run into a problem where it seems like Vinny is the only one who has given the game its due so he will probably be the only one really pushing for it.
Now Spider Man being #1. It probably isn't the best game of the year and it is one that most people on the site have said is flawed... but then they all pretty much played it through to the end and can you name another game this year that has happened with? If almost everyone on staff has played through such a long game then there must be something there. I am guessing it is like GOTY 2011 all over again where Saints Row: The Third, Portal 2 and Bastion were the games that the staff were most passionate about. Yet, Skyrim won almost by default because passions were high about SR3, Portal and Bastion yet that passion wasn't unanimous and Skyrim was good enough for the staff members to all have put in a good chunk of time.
Edit: As for the rest of the predictions. Hottest Mess; that prediction came from the fact that there are a LOT of broken, half-baked online games this year. It seems like Fallout 76 is a lock, and now that I type this down I am doubting my prediction... then again, The Quiet Man exists. The rebranding of "best short form game," is something that seems to happen almost every year, so mentioning another rebranding is barely a prediction. The best story prediction is basically what happens EVERY year in GOTY, with the only real exceptions being when Patrick or Austin was on staff... but those two are gone now and Vinny, Abby and Brad are the only two members left who prefer story enough to fight for a game like Obra Dinn. Brad has been vocal about giving an award to something other than a thumpin techno soundtrack enough times now that it is beginning to be a trope so another barely prediction, prediction. Another barely prediction, prediction is in the Red Dead Argument... there is a real chance I am wrong here, but GOTY podcasts do show that Jeff is the alpha arguer of the group and he has a history of using that skill to shut down games he isn't a fan of. Hell, I remember the Skyrim GOTY win and Jeff sounded like he was almost on the verge of putting his foot down and just declaring Saints Row the winner that year.... same thing with Mario Maker. The Abby portion is maybe a little unfair, she has only been on one GOTY podcast grind so far. I assume she has learned how to better argue her point, but if there is one thing I remember from last years GOTY was how annoyingly aggressive she was with Cuphead even when several staff members flat out told her it wasn't happening.
So are my predictions accurate? Mostly definitely not. They are educated guesses, but the staff has a tendency to cram a lot of those half-finished games in before GOTY podcasts, so all the info I use to predict can be completely invalid.
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